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高盛:首予復星旅文買入評級,目標價15.5港元

格隆匯5月10日丨高盛發研報指,首次給予復星旅文(1992.HK)“買入”評級,目標價為15.5港元。報吿提到,基於內地主題公園、滑雪場和室內冰場供不應求,復星旅文通過複製2018年開業的三亞亞特蘭蒂斯酒店的成功經驗,推出兩個新項目。

高盛表示,復星旅文的估值在新冠疫情爆發後不久於觸底至5-6倍的預期EV/EBITDA,並在2021年第二、三季達到12-13倍的峯值,隨着海外邊境重開,當時被壓抑的需求推動了中國旅遊業的強勁復甦。在整個週期內,該股平均處於8-9倍,遠低於其他中國酒店品牌的13-17倍。該行相信,是由於集團歷史上較慢的擴張及較低現金回報。如果剔除房地產發展,其交易價格接近歷史區間的低位,通過項目加速向中國擴張所帶來的上行空間有限。

高盛預計,復星旅文淨債務與總資產的比率將從2022財年的峯值(56%)逐漸改善至2025財年的42%,淨債務與EBITDA比率將轉至1.4倍。為了衡量房地產銷售遜於預期可能導致的資金短缺,只要能夠達到34%的銷售率,集團應該能夠在2022-25財年獲得足夠的資金來完成其兩個項目並履行其59億元人民幣的預定債務償還。

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