招商證券國際:美股回調對港股產生溢出效應 估港股在底部震盪
招商證券國際早前發表報告表示,就美聯儲局會議排除了未來幾個月加息75個基點的可能性,似乎暫時對市場情緒起到了提振作用。然而,考慮到通脹壓力持續,以及西方國家對俄羅斯能源出口採取的制裁措施、以及中國新冠疫情防控措施導致的供應鏈瓶頸等不確定性,美聯儲在今年剩餘時間轉向更爲鷹派的風險仍然存在。
該行估計港股市場可能在一段時間內在底部震盪,波幅加劇,並關注美國通脹高企的壓力,以及未來幾個月美聯儲貨幣政策收緊步伐加快的風險,若美股市場回調,將對中概股和港股市場產生溢出效應。
招商證券國際指未來主要風險,包括第一是全球疫情、第二是俄烏局勢或進一步惡化,西方國家制裁手段超出預期、第三美聯儲加息步伐加快可能導致美股回調,港股市場難以獨善其身;第四是中國經濟恢復乏力,但政策力度不及預期;第五中美關係持續緊張甚至惡化。
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