《大行報告》瑞信:內地禁未成年人蔘與直播打賞對行業影響非預期可怕 估「B站」及快手受影響較低
就國家廣電總局等部門近日發佈《關於規範網絡直播打賞,加強未成年人保護的意見》提出,禁止未成年人蔘與直播打賞(不得爲未滿16週歲的未成年人提供網絡主播服務),嚴控未成年人從事主播,嚴格落實實名制要求,禁止爲未成年人提供現金充值、「禮物」購買、在線支付等各類打賞服務,不得設置「PK懲罰」。網站平臺應在每日晚上10時後,對青少年模式下的各項服務強制下線。瑞信發表報告表示,對於內地針對未成年人上述保護相關的措施,認爲對加強未成年人保護並不新鮮。該行稱指對未成年人保護一直是營運商的一項營運重點,並且措施已經到位。
該行指觀察到平臺都引入了限制每日觀看時間和某些內容的「青少年模式」,並且未成年人的小費可以退還。至於新的規管方面,當局正在進行一些操作上的改變,以防止不合理的小費。平臺將需要進行修改以符合上述細節,例如打賞前的用戶驗證、移除打賞排名功能、以及高峯時段「PK對話」限制等,該行認爲這些調整間接影響了付費情緒。
但瑞信表示「PK」是兩個主播相互競爭的常見做法。由晚上8點至10點期間限制爲雙方對話,但「PK」只是主播與觀衆互動的衆多方式之一,除了晚上8點到10點之外並無其他限制,因此該行認爲影響有限。至於「排名」的取消應該會影響最高支付者的支付情緒。
該行表示今次當局出臺的措施,與市場原預期所擔心直接爲打賞設上限相比,認爲該今次措施並沒有那般可怕。
瑞信認爲相關平臺於過去兩年在變現和營運方面都採取了更爲謹慎的態度,陌陌(MOMO.US)早在2020年就開始改造其生態系統,以減少對頂級支付者的集中度及以應對監管風險。此外,今年較弱的宏觀背景也損害了頂級用戶的付費情緒。因此,該行認爲新法規的影響可能輕微。
該行估計對純直播不臺或會產生相對較高的影響,包括陌陌、虎牙(HUYA.US)、鬥魚(DOYU.US),付費結構較爲扁平、ARPU較低的平臺如「B站」嗶哩嗶哩(09626.HK)(BILI.US)及快手(01024.HK)相對所受影響會較低,對於嗶哩嗶哩和快手來說,直播屬於內容生態和變現渠道的一部分,而不是其增長動力。(wl/s)
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