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植耀輝: 滯脹憂慮美股再大跌 港股恐失守19,600點
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(9日)再度急跌,對滯脹之擔憂,加上關注經濟數據及企業季績表現,科技股繼續大幅下挫,標普500指數更失守4,000點。最終道指下跌653點或2%,收報32,245點,標普500指數下跌3.2%,收報3,991點,納指更大跌4.3%,收報11,623點。 港股方面,受多個利淡因素挾擊,恆指上週五(6日)一度失守20,000點關口,最低跌至19,973點,雖然最終20,000點關口失而復得,但全周計恆指仍累跌近1,087點或5.2%,收報20,001點。成份股中只得10只股份錄得升幅,跌幅超過一成則達到13只,當中又以阿裏健康(00241.HK)表現最差,累跌達到16.7%,藥明生物(02269.HK)跌幅亦達到16%。 港股短期走勢仍未許樂觀,雖然已有顯着調整,不過困擾投資市場之變數仍在。尤其是投資者持續關注未來經濟狀況,美國大舉加息會否重擊經濟從而引發衰退,而內地疫情亦令經濟前景變得相當不明朗,加上困擾中概股之負面消息仍在,預期港股將維持尋底格局不變,今日(10日)且看4月27日低位即約19,600點水平能否守穩。若失守則恐怕須進一步考驗19,000點關口。至於短期須關注之因素,除了十年期債息及美匯走勢外,內地本週亦會陸續公佈上月經濟數據如CPI及PPI等表現,預期對內地經濟最新表現有更多啓示。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份) *********** 恆指回試18500點的機會增大 耀才研究部稱,週一(9日)美股三大指數全線下跌,道指跌2%,標指跌3.2%,納指更挫逾4.3%,市場仍然憂慮聯儲局6月加息0.75釐的可能性,美國10年期債息一度衝上3.208釐,拖累股市的表現,金龍中國指數挫8%。風險資產遭到拋售,比特幣於亞洲時間一度跌破3萬美元大關。中國方面,內地4月份以美元計價出口按年成長3.9%,創下2020年6月以來最慢增速,疲弱的經濟數據令市場憂慮疫情對經濟發展的影響。上週恆指黑挫逾千點,黑期預示指數未能止跌將下試19,300點水平,跌穿21,100點至19,800點區間的話,以量度跌幅計指數跌至18,500點的機會增大。 技術上,由於恆指再度跌穿19,800點至21,100的交易區間,以1,300點波幅量度起計,指數將於18,500點至19,800點上落。指數首要反彈阻力位於4月27日低位19,665點。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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