渣打銀行:預計英國央行將加息至1.5%後停止加息
格隆匯5月6日丨渣打銀行:預計英國央行將在6月和8月各加息25個基點至1.5%後停止加息,此前預計爲僅在8月加息。我們仍認爲,今年的市場定價(年底前再4至5次加息25個基點)過於激進;因此,雖然不能排除第四季度進一步收緊貨幣政策的可能性,但我們認爲英國央行將利率達到1.50%時暫停加息,以評估新數據。預計該利率將在明年達到2.00%的峯值,因此預計2023年將有兩次額外加息(此前預計爲三次),最有可能是在第二季度和第三季度,但這些額外加息的時間在目前階段非常不確定。
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