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《大行報告》花旗:恆指估值不貴 聚焦受惠美加息等主題 薦中銀等逾十多隻股份
花旗發表中國市場策略報告,港股市場踏入5至6月,市場焦點會轉至政策支持面上,關注美聯儲局未來加息步伐、中國內地防疫情況及中美兩國關稅問題等。該行料美聯儲局2022年上調利率共275個基點,即5月、6月、7月及9月各加息50個基點,10月及12月各加息25基點,並料當局至2022年年底將聯邦基金利率的目標區間上調至介乎2.75%至3%,估計至2023年將政策利率上調至介乎3.5%至3.75%。 該行指,恆指於5月4日收市爲20,870點,相當於預測市盈率9.1倍,對比過去十年曆史平均值爲10.4倍,亦相當預測今年市賬率1倍,低於過去十年曆史平均值爲1.2倍,指估值並不昂貴。 花旗估計中銀香港(02388.HK)及友邦(01299.HK)可受惠美加息週期,料日常消費股可受惠經濟復甦,包括蒙牛(02319.HK)及華潤啤酒(00291.HK),估計消閒股亦可受惠包括復星旅遊文化(01992.HK)、銀河娛樂(00027.HK)、金沙中國(01928.HK),家庭用品股亦可受益包括海爾智家(06690.HK)、美的集團(000333.SZ)及蘇泊爾(002032.SZ),料圓通速遞(600233.SH)、中通快遞(ZTO.US)及長江基建(01038.HK)亦可受惠。 此外,就美國對華商品徵收懲罰性關稅措施(涉及每年3,500億美元)7月6日屆滿,當局或爲緩減通脹有機會削減相關關稅,該行料巨星科技(002444.SZ)、創科實業(00669.HK)、敏華控股(01999.HK)、恆立液壓(601100.SH)及隆基股份(601012.SH)可潛在受惠。
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