瑞銀料美國通脹將降溫 減輕美聯儲提高利率至遠高於中性水平壓力
美聯儲宣布加息50個基點,上調聯邦基金利率目標範圍至介乎0.75%至1%,為2000年5月以來首次上調利率50個基點。美聯儲主席鮑威爾表示,在未來幾次的會議上,加息50個基點將是合適的,並稱沒有積極考慮加息75個基點。
瑞銀財富管理亞太區投資總監辦公室指,此前市場預期美聯儲在6月加息75個基點、在未來四次會議(包括昨晚)合計加息超200個基點的可能性達到35%。因此,鮑威爾的言論令鴿派投資者感到驚訝,此對債券和股票市場都是積極。
該行稱其觀點與美聯儲基本一致,認為正如鮑威爾所指,俄烏衝突和中國封控措施對供應端造成額外的衝擊,增加通脹壓力,使央行壓抑通脹的工作變得更加困難。然而,瑞銀仍然相信經濟能夠軟著陸。
總體而言,瑞銀相信美國家庭和企業資產負債表都強勁,即使利率上升,消費和投資也料將繼續增長。另外,過去一年「過熱」的商品價格將大幅下滑,應有助於整體通脹降溫,減輕美聯儲將利率提高至遠高於中性水平的壓力。
瑞銀預計3月PCE價格指數為6.6%,到年末前料將降至4%以下,應允許美聯儲在利率升至2.5%左右的中性水平後,加息周期得以暫停。按照該行的基準情景,即增長和通脹溫和放緩,美股今年末有望進一步走高。
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