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摩通:神華首季表現強勁,升目標價至23港元

格隆匯4月28日丨摩通發研報指,中國神華(1088.HK)今年首季表現強勁,優於預期,首季盈利按年強勁增長63%至190億元人民幣,佔本財年市場預期的31%,主要是由於煤炭合約價格高於去年,認為其強勁的現金流和超過15%的高股息率,使其在波動的股市中成為具吸引力的防禦性投資,上調其H股及A股目標價15-17%分別至23港元及24.5元人民幣,予“中性”評級。

該行認為,目前中國煤炭價格較高是由於海運市場的緊張,預計煤炭價格將逐步下跌,相信中國目前的煤炭市場由於新增產能而供應充足,亦料進口短缺將逐漸被國內生產所取代,與兗礦能源(1171.HK)相比,更看好神華,因為預計神華的平均售價在煤價下行週期中將相對穩定,上調今明兩年的盈利預測分別為34%及24%。

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