植耀輝: 美股反彈續觀望科企季績 港股短期有望回穩
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(25日)走勢反覆,早段道指一度再跌近500點,投資者繼續關注息口去向以及內地疫情最新發展。不過隨著債息回落,加上科技股出現反彈,美股出現V型反彈。最終道指上升238點或0.7%,收報34,049點,標普500指數上升24點或0.57%,收報4,296點,納指上升165點或1.29%,收報13,004點。今日起將有多間科技巨企公布季業,打頭陣便有微軟(MSFT.US)及Alphabet(GOOGL.US),且看業績及前景展望能否為美股帶來更大啟示。
至於港股,受A股拖累下大跌769點,為連續第五個交易日下跌,累積跌幅亦達到1,649點。恆指早段跟隨上週美股跌勢,低開354點,惟已是全日最高位,其後A股跌勢轉急,恆指亦受影響,最低更跌至19,784點,雖然收市前有所反彈,但全日計仍未能重上20,000關口,收報19,869點。全日成交增至1,348億元。
海底撈(06862.HK)為最大跌幅成份股,跌幅達到15.8%,其次為下跌一成之招行(03968.HK),受前高層受查消息影響。事實上,昨日成份股僅得3隻錄得升幅,反映整體大市表現欠佳。後市跌勢能否喘定,須視乎A股在2,900點能否找到支持。內地股市昨日重挫,滬深指數跌幅均超過5%,上綜指更以全日最低位2,928點收市。投資者持續關注內地疫情狀況,另外人民幣匯價急跌,亦成為另一推低港股之重要因素。由於隔晚人行宣布上調外匯存款準備金率,故初步若A股回穩,港股或可守穩於19,500點水平。只是大市本身仍缺乏利好消息支持,故反彈空間亦十分有限,預期20,500點之上已有一定阻力。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,持有微軟及Alphabet股份)
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恆指首要反彈目標為10天線水平即20,800點
耀才研究部稱,隔晚(25日)美股先跌後升,俄烏局勢未明,投資者繼續觀望企業季績,早段時間道指最多跌近500點,不過其後科技股帶動大市出現單日轉向,道指收升逾200點,納指亦升逾1%,金龍中國指數上漲0.7%。中港方面,北京除了朝陽區部分區域提升管控措施,加上美國於加息周期下令中美息差收窄,人民幣匯價持續偏弱,央行突然公布於5月15日起,下調金融機構外匯存款準備金率1個百分點至8%,將向市場釋放約一萬億美元等值的外匯流動性,有助穩定人幣走勢,對市況氣氛亦有幫助。黑期預示恆指將反彈至20,000點水平爭持,匯控(00005.HK)今日公布首季業績,市場預計列帳基準稅前盈利按年跌近36%。
技術走勢上,以22,400點小雙頂位置起計,恆指已完成跌穿頸線後的量度跌幅,亦即回補3月17號的全部裂口,目前19,800點將為即市支持,而反彈目標先以10天線水平即20,800點為阻力。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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