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瑞銀:內地主要城市採取新一輪封控措施 表明短期防疫政策不太可能改變
阿思達克 04-26 12:24
瑞銀財富管理亞太區投資總監辦公室發表報告指,隨着深圳、上海和長春等大城市陸續採取管控和封控防疫措施,表明中國在短期內不太可能改變其防疫政策,如果短期內疫情擴散至其他城市,預期中國將繼續實施出行限制措施。在接種兩針甚至加強針的人數(尤其是老年人口)達到較高比例之前,部份出行限制措施很可能將延續。 該行預計各地方政府將更爲警惕,會盡早採取措施並部署核酸檢測以防止病毒傳播,而這會令經濟活動頻繁受到幹擾。鑑於出行限制料將持續,消費和製造業活動很可能因物流受阻而繼續受到衝擊。 在經濟增長日益受到挑戰(尤其是今年下半年)的情況下,瑞銀預計中央政府將加大財政和貨幣支持力度。降準降息等貨幣支持措施有望推出,基建投資繼續發力,房地產政策實施可望更爲靈活。該行認爲短期內政策支持將成爲催化劑,有助於提振投資者情緒。 瑞銀又將今年企業盈利增速預期從13%下調至11%,以反映三個主要行業的增長可能放緩,包括通信服務、可選消費和工業。(ek/u) ~
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