You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
《大行報告》大摩料九龍倉置業(01997.HK)跑輸其他通關概念股 重申「減持」看34元
摩根士丹利以「結構性向下重評」(A Structural De-Rating)為題發表研究報告,指九龍倉置業(01997.HK)是投資重啟邊境主題的理想替代品。九倉置業在2018年曾高見60元,每股盈利曾達3.3元。不過,即使本港全面與內地免檢疫通關,大摩亦不認為九倉置業可以再達至以往每股盈利高位,並料其跑輸其他受惠通關概念的股份,評級「減持」,目標價34元。 報告稱,本港與內地今年全年料維持關閉邊境,因香港每日新增新冠個案仍高於零,而內地仍嚴厲實行「動態清零」。參考澳門經驗,即使重啟邊境,消費市道也是漸進而不是「V」型反彈。 大摩解釋,內地商場消費更趨多元化,香港相形見絀。恆隆地產(00101.HK)內地商場銷售在2020年按年升43%後,2021年再升46%,受惠產品更多元化。海南免稅區銷售在2018至2021年間增長4倍。美容及護膚品定價吸引,或蠶食內地旅客訪港在有關領域上的開支(佔2019年內地旅客總消費的31%)。 報告表示,去年第四季線上零售銷售佔本港總零售銷售10%,高於2020年的6.3%水平,但比率仍低於新加坡(14%)、內地及美國,料將「追落後」,或不利線下實體店生意。 再甚者,大摩稱,銅鑼灣時代廣場已降格成「生活商場」。2021年LV及Fendi關閉了時代廣場分店。同時,羅素街有少量奢侈品牌撤出,一些騰出舖位由租金低80%的口罩店承租。時代廣場較希慎(00014.HK)旗下商場的租金溢價已由2018年的64%縮減至2021年的36%,並料將持續收窄。 此外,新世界(00017.HK)旗下尖沙咀K11 Musea自2019年8月開業以來增長強勁,其現時租金較海港城低出逾50%,將壓抑未來海港城續租租金。 另外,九倉置業商廈租務市場展望呈結構性疲弱。九倉置業商廈組合在新增樓面下,面對擴張需求疲弱及空置率上升。九龍東供過於求,新樓成商廈租金較低,或導致尖沙咀樓齡較高商廈面對持續租金倒退。 最後,大摩稱,九倉置業估值不吸引,料在結構性利淡因素下每股盈利復甦緩慢。假設2024年全面通關,以市盈率歷史高位計,股價上行空間僅15%,但澳門濠賭股以長期平均市盈率計,股價上行空間平均達93%。而2024年九倉置業股息率料維持3.9%低位。公司股價或已反映消費券帶來的短期本地零售銷售復甦。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account