《大行報告》摩通:關注美聯儲「放鷹」及中國疫情 市場情緒或令大市底部延長
摩根大通發表亞太區市場策略報表示,當在首季業績期尋找投資機會之際,宜關注美聯儲局「放鷹」及中國新冠疫情的發展。該行指亞太股市近期錄連續第三周下滑,特別是中國在岸市場(滬深300指數跌至3月中低位)及離岸市場(MSCI中國指數跌6.8%),明顯跑輸,相信是投資者擔心內地疫情惡化及缺乏明顯刺激政策。
該行指,部份投資者的憂慮令其撤出相關市場,該行認為市場情緒或令相關市場的底部延長,並留意到有資本外流加快,亦導致人民幣兌美元匯價走弱。
摩通表示,美聯儲局對加息步伐取態「強硬」,料5月和6月至少加息50個基點,市場亦預計今年將進一步加息約250個基點,並預計美元匯價將持續走強,而迄今為止一直保持彈性的新興市場貨幣開始感受到壓力。該行指自年初以來美聯儲局「鷹派」取態的穩步增強,對成長型股票構成挑戰。然而,隨著通脹緩和等影響,料將有助於推動市場增長和價值板塊的上行,長遠來看,價值股繼續受到支持。
此外,該行亦列出預期本周公布業績潛在表現正面的股份,包括海通證券(06837.HK)、時代電氣(03898.HK)、中石化(00386.HK)、中國財險(02328.HK)、國航(00753.HK)、南航(01055.HK)、中遠海控(01919.HK)、蔚來汽車(NIO.US)及華潤水泥(01313.HK)等。
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