《大行報告》美銀證券料全國約20%內房銷售受「封城」拖累 金茂及旭輝等受影響較大
美銀證券發表研究報告指出,在基本情況下,預期內地目前「封城」措施將持續至5月中旬,而在此情況下,估計內房今年新屋銷售量按年跌超過20%,但將於明年有所反彈。對零售收入的影響將更加明顯。
該行認爲,在內地50多個主要城市中約20%的內房銷售項目受疫情復燃打擊,而於上海有重大敞口的發展商包括華潤置地(01109.HK)、遠洋集團(03377.HK)及融創中國(01918.HK),而新城發展(01030.HK)、旭輝(00884.HK)及金茂(00817.HK)的長三角敞口則最多。長三角佔全國新屋銷售的37%,珠三角佔24%。據該行追蹤的每週數據顯示,內地28個城市的一手銷售由3月份按年跌50%,惡化至目前的跌63%。
美銀證券預期,短期內相信國企物管股的表現較國企發展商股更具防禦性。一旦最新的疫情消退,估計發展商的股價表現將優於物管股,繼續看好優質開發商如中海外(00688.HK)、華潤置地和萬科(02202.HK),而物管股中首選碧桂園服務(06098.HK)及中海物業(02669.HK)。
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