《大行報告》美銀證券降中燃(00384.HK)目標價至11元 評級「跑輸大市」
美銀證券發表報告,指該行油氣研究團隊降內地今年燃氣需求增長預測,由8%降至7%,相應降新奧能源(02688.HK)及華潤燃氣(01193.HK)今年燃氣銷售增長預測1個百分點,至分別11%及10%。該行上調中燃(00384.HK)截至今年3月底止財年售氣量預測,由13%升至15%,與指引相符,並降2023財年售氣量預測至11%。該行降中燃目標價,由16元削至11元,評級「跑輸大市」;並維持新奧、潤燃及北京控股(00392.HK)目標價分別83.6元、29元及23元,評級全爲「跑輸大市」。
在經濟下行下,美銀證券料油氣成本高企將削弱消費者負擔能力,致燃氣分銷商單位毛利率及銷氣量受壓。防疫限制亦幹擾供應鏈,出口及壓抑工商業需求。該行早前已下調新奧、潤燃單位毛利率預測,並降中燃2022及2023財年單位毛利分別每方米3分及8分人民幣,至分別53及48分人民幣。
另去年內地錄得多宗燃氣安全事故,該行引述應急管理部指,內地供氣管道網絡進入易於發生事故階段,約10萬公裏管道已老化,需要升級或置換,料產生約1,000億元人民幣成本。國家發改委及住建部已下發老化管道置換計劃,並籌劃執行細節。該行稱,倘動用現有政府津貼更換老化管道,分銷商許可利潤及單位毛利將相應下降。該行上調分銷商儲氣產能資本開支預測,至2025年料達總銷氣量5%,至2030年料達7%。計及液化天然氣(LNG)及液化石油氣(LPG)終端接收資本開支,上調中燃2022至2030財年資本開支預測,並上調中燃2022財年每股盈測7%,2023財年則降2%。
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