《大行報告》中金:近期南下資金重回流入 料港股恐慌性拋售期已基本結束
中金髮表報告表示,雖然港股仍會有一定波折反覆,但恐慌性的拋售已經基本結束,逐步進入結構性的估值修復階段。未來影響市場走勢的一些關鍵變量包括第一是中美監管合作與國際地緣局勢;第二是國內疫情防控進展與對增長的影響;第三是穩增長政策的力度與時間。
整體來看,中金認爲港股的機會仍然大於風險,國內穩增長不斷髮力有助於逐步改善投資者預期和信心。配置方面,該行認爲低估值高股息收益和前期調整幅度較大的優質成長股仍將爲投資者在波動中提供更多保護。同時,穩增長板塊(部分原材料)有望獲得政策支撐。內地金融和消費隨着疫情改善也值得關注。
南向資金整體維持強勁,近期再度加速。3月中上旬港股動盪期間,南下資金依然逆勢流入。除3月17日小幅流出外,自2月23日市場波動開始至3月23日市場企穩反彈的一個月內,南向資金幾乎每日維持流入且持續加速,整體流入規模634億港元,佔年初以來整體流入973億港元的三分之二。從個股來看,主要流入騰訊(00700.HK)、美團-W(03690.HK)、李寧(02331.HK)、藥明生物(02269.HK)和快手-W(01024.HK)等跌幅較大的新經濟個股。
該行表示,3月底南下資金一度有所轉弱,3月24至3月30日期間連續淨流出。不過4月清明節假期後,南下資金重新加速流入,日均流入6.6億人民幣。
中金指,海外資金近期有所企穩;前期一度大幅流出可能是波動主因。在南向資金整體流入的大背景下,該行認爲前期海外資金流出或是3月中旬市場動盪的主因,其中又以主動型資金流出主導。不過近期,得益於國內監管維穩信號以及中美監管合作的一些積極進展,海外資金的流出勢頭有所緩解。基於EPFR統計的數據口徑,3月下旬以來(3月24日至今),流入港股的海外被動資金爲28.3億美元,海外主動資金繼續小幅流出1.7億美元,因此整體流入規模總計26.6億美元。
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