渣打降內地全年經濟增長預測至5%
渣打發表報告,指內地首季經濟按年增長4.8%,高於市場預期的4.2%;經季調按季增幅由去年末季的1.5%放緩至1.3%。該行估算意味內地首季經濟恢復至增長趨勢,不過,工業生產分野擴大。疫情爆發及嚴厲防疫限制料顯著壓抑次季增長。有關封城措施影響已反映於3月數據,服務業產出按年跌0.9%,相較今年首兩個月升4.2%,運輸、餐飲及住宿板塊最受衝擊。零售銷售亦受影響,3月按年降3.5%,今年首兩個月則升6.7%。
報告降內地今年次季經濟增長預測,由原先5%降至3.5%,意味次季按季零增長。該行維持第三及四季經濟增長預測分別6%及5.4%不變,假設5月起隨著防疫措施放寬及政策刺激加大,而經濟活動顯著復甦。因此,渣打降內地全年經濟增長預測,由原先5.3%降至5%。
渣打料今年年中前,人行中期借貸便利(MLF)工具利率將進一步減10個基點,並料今年不再降準。
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