《大行報告》高盛:降準幅度小於預期及擔憂通脹和美聯儲加息 基本情況不預期人行再減息及進一步降準
高盛發表研究報告指,中國人民銀行上週五(15日)宣佈4月25日起下調存款準備金率約30個基點,廣義降準25個基點,部分城鄉商業銀行再定向降準25個基點,降準幅度低於市場及該行預期。
高盛指,當局表示出對通脹不確定性及主要已發展市場收緊貨幣政策的溢出效應感到擔憂,因此將不再預期人行會進一步下調基準利率或進一步下調存款準備金率。該行又指,中央表明擬引導存款利率走低,同時將努力降低整體融資成本,鼓勵中小銀行降低存款利率上限,但實際效果仍有待觀察。考慮到人銀行將重點放在降低有效貸款利率上,該行預期LPR在未來幾個月可能會有小幅下調。
高盛認爲,內地確診數字目前仍處於較高水平,防疫限制繼續拖累經濟增長,仍然認爲當局需要進一步放寬政策以支持增長,預期中央可能傾向於使用更多的財政措施,例如加快重大基礎設施項目建設,及推出針對性貨幣寬鬆政策,以推動信貸增長持續加快,預測全年社會融資存量增長將達11%。
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