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大和:汽車股看好比亞迪及蔚來,兩公司付運確定性高

大和發表內地汽車行業報吿,內地車股推薦比亞迪(1211.HK)和蔚來汽車(NIO.US),指兩公司的付運確定性更高,並建議在今年第二季中段加倉長城汽車(2333.HK)。

該行近日與一位專家交流行業晶片短缺問題,專家認為晶片供應商自去年下半年一直在囤積晶片,並正在利用這個機會讓汽車代工生產商要支付更高的價格,長汽、吉利(0175.HK)及廣汽(2238.HK)於今年首季均指產能受到世博電子穩定程式(ESP)供應短缺所影響。

專家表示,部分汽車生產商減產可能歸因於成本壓力或訂單預訂不足,而不是缺乏晶片供應。專家預計2022年平均每個內燃機(ICE)需要934個晶片,每輛新能源汽車需要1,459個晶片。他還預測每輛車所需晶片價值為600美元,並料至2025年可能升至700美元以上。

由於汽車市場需求大增,芯片製造商增加了8英寸和12英寸晶圓產能,該專家認為2023年相關供應可能超過需求,而中國芯片供應商或將搶佔機會在低端市場取代海外晶片,但認為海外的中高端芯片可能不易被替代。

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