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植耀輝: 美股反彈觀望季績表現 長假期前夕港股續拉鋸戰
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(13日)反彈。雖然摩根大通季績表現遜預期,不過達美航空業績表現勝預期之餘展望亦佳,另外PPI數據雖亦高於預期,但投資者預期通脹可能已見頂,氣氛亦有利市況。最終道指及標普500指數均上升逾1%,納指更反彈超過2%。 港股方面,繼續於21,300點水平上落,不過成交量則縮減至1,002億元,反映在長假期前夕,投資者入市意欲亦不高,這亦不難理解,皆因短期港股仍面對衆多不明朗因素,內地下週仍會公佈一系列經濟數據,重頭戲當然是首季GDP表現,另外還包括零售銷售及工業利潤等。另一方面,投資者亦關注內地疫情對經濟之潛在影響,相信短期此等因素仍會困擾A股及港股表現。 至於外圍情況亦須留意。美國正式踏入季績期,今日將有摩根士丹利(MS.US)、高盛(GS.US)及花旗(C.US)等金融股公佈季績,表現將會左右美股短期去向。另外俄烏局勢亦持續受到投資者關注,戰事持續對商品價格仍會帶來長遠影響。預期港股21,000點支持力仍強,但在未有進一步利好消息前,恆指亦仍會受制於22,000點附近水平。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人,持有高盛股份) ********** 恆指需時在小雙頂頸線整固 耀才證券研究部團隊稱,隔晚(13日)美股先升後跌,美國上月CPI按年升幅由2月的7.9%增至8.5%再創40年新高,不過核心CPI環比升幅有放緩,市場對未來的通脹預期亦有所回落,支持道指早段曾反彈逾300點,不過聯儲局理事稱縮錶行動可能在6月開始,縮表的力度可能相當於增加兩到三次加息,令大市其後倒跌。美國再將12間中概股公司加入有摘牌風險的發行人臨時名單,爲三月以來第四批,金龍中國指數收市跌1.3%,恆指昨日跟隨A股升幅後才得以重返小雙頂頸線,不過留意到有政策利好的遊戲股升幅開市後已明顯縮窄,如果中美關係再度緊張將令大市再度受壓,目前仍需時間於21,200關口整固。 技術走勢上,恆指已跌穿3月17日起計的短期上升軌,昨日亦下試小雙頂頸線即21,200點,RSI動力持續下跌較爲利淡,先觀望指數能否在頸線位置找到支持。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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