全球基金經理在擔憂什麼?在投資什麼?
美銀本週二(4月12日)最新公佈的4月基金經理調查顯示,基金經理對全球經濟增長的樂觀情緒觸及歷史低點,而對可能出現滯脹的擔憂升至2008年8月以來的最高水平。
這項調查正值通脹壓力上升之際,與此同時主要經濟體的衰退風險增加。
在被問及對未來幾個月全球經濟增長的預期時,71%的受訪者對前景感到悲觀,這是自上世紀90年代初開始有這項調查記錄以來的最高水平。
對歐洲基金經理的調查發現,投資者繼續下調對歐洲經濟增長的預期,預計未來一年歐洲經濟將走弱的受訪者佔81%,而3月份的調查中這一比例爲69%。
儘管基金經理的現金持有量在4月份的調查中從上月的5.9%下降到5.5%,但調查發現,全球經濟衰退的前景仍然是全球市場的最大“尾部風險”。
俄烏衝突帶來的風險已降至第四位,央行採取激進的加息行動和通脹分別位列第二和第三位。
大宗商品的配置躍升至創紀錄的38%,其中石油等大宗商品的投資在調查中迅速上升,成爲最“擁擠的交易”。
美銀表示,其它“多頭”頭寸是資源類股票和醫療保健類股票,而“空頭”頭寸則明顯押注於債券和表現與經濟增長關係最爲密切的週期性股票。
參與調查的人士預計,美聯儲在當前週期將加息多達七次,而上一週期爲四次,多數投資者預計未來12個月通脹將放緩。
美銀表示,全球利潤預期降至2020年3月以來的最低水平。
就地區股市配置而言,投資者最看好美國股市,而看跌最多的則是歐洲和英國股市。
儘管對衰退的擔憂日益加劇,但多數受訪者預計歐洲股市將在貨幣經濟週期中創下新高,只有不到30%的受訪者預計市場將走軟。
在歐洲的調查顯示,英國股市仍是歐洲最受歡迎的股市,而德國和意大利股市最不受歡迎。
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