瑞銀汪濤:人行或進一步降準支援信貸反彈 料首季GDP增長4.2%
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤指,3月新增人民幣貸款3.13萬億,大幅強於預期,按年多增4,000億元。她認爲央行會利用進一步降準、其他流動性和貨幣政策工具、放鬆信貸政策等方式,支援信貸反彈。
瑞銀投行預計今年上半年信貸按年增速會繼續小幅反彈、年中達11%左右,下半年信貸增速小幅回落,信貸脈衝在6至7月轉正。此外,未來1至2個月人行可能降低政策利率,不過鑑於3月信貸大幅反彈、市場利率較低、中美利差倒掛,短期內降息的可能性已大幅降低。
汪濤,預計第一季中國整體GDP按年增速或將微升至4.2%。同時預計未來幾個月防疫政策可能微調,宏觀政策也可能進一步放鬆,包括降準、下調政策利率、加大基建投資以及放鬆房地產調控。該行對今年經濟增長的基準預測爲5%,如果防疫政策更加嚴格、或持續時間更長,或拖累今年GDP增長降至4%。
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