《大行報告》瑞銀:本港未陷入滯脹 料明年經濟增長反彈至5.5% 人口縮減帶來中期挑戰
瑞銀投資銀行北亞地區經濟師鄧維慎發表報告,指本港經濟持續面對外內挑戰,外圍看,全球經濟增長料遜於原先預測。考慮俄烏衝突,該行全球經濟團隊近期下調今年全球增長預測1個百分點至3.6%,已計及能源價格震盪、家庭消費力被蠶食,以及供應鏈潛在進一步幹擾。本地而言,疫情仍是一個負面因素。
報告稱,考慮外圍不確定性對已經疲弱的本地增長雪上加霜,或損害復甦。該行近期將本港今年經濟增長預測由2.2%降至1%。該行評估本港未陷入滯脹,料高能源價格對消費價格的影響可控,及政府有充裕財政資源以吸收進一步的溢出效應。此外,該行料本港明年經濟增長反彈至5.5%,而不是進入延長的滯脹。
瑞銀稱,官方數據顯示過去兩年本港人口收縮。該行就四個人口假設進行情境預測,在2022至2024年間人口變動介乎減少40萬人至增加10萬人,在該等情境下實際GPD增長波動於1.8%至3.2%之間。倘人口減少持續,將帶來中期增長挑戰。
報告稱,本港結構增長故事仍然存在。大灣區發展計劃、北部都會區計劃、香港作爲人民幣國際化及財富管理的中心,以及國家「十四五」規劃將支持結構增長。由於現時面對震盪及外圍經濟不確定性延長,料政府需要更多力度讓增長潛力具體落地。
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