植耀輝: 停戰露曙光美股揚 港股22,000點阻力大
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(28日)造好,開市早段美股個別發展,受拜登政府有意對超級富豪及企業加稅影響,不過俄烏局勢有新發展,有消息指俄方或會讓步,取消三項停戰要求,消息刺激美股上升。最終道指上升近100點,收報34,955點,標普500指數上升32點或0.71%,收報4,575點,納指則升185點或1.31%,收報14,354點。值得一提的是,蘋果公司(AAPL.US)股價連續第十個交易日上升,爲2010年10月以來最長連升紀錄,不過股價今年暫仍累跌1%。
港股方面,昨日在美團(03690.HK)等新經濟股支持下有好表現,恆指最多便一度逼近21,800點水平,收市仍能維持接近300點升幅,最終收報21,684點,上升280點,大市整體成交1,343億元。成份股中亦以美團表現最佳,收報150.6元,上升11.6%,事實上單一隻美團便爲恆指貢獻121點,若計及騰訊(00700.HK)及阿裏(09988.HK),則三者已爲恆指貢獻221點。反而內需股表現欠佳,潤啤(00291.HK)及蒙牛(02319.HK)跌幅約2%。
雖然港股昨日表現不俗,並繼續守穩10天及20天線水平,但整體氣氛仍較審慎,雖然美團股價昨日上揚,但筆者對其業績看法頗中性,而且新經濟股近期表現亦相當反覆,加上外圍地緣政局及美股狀況依然對市況有一定影響,時投資者亦將繼續關注業績表現,預期港股將繼續於21,000至22,000點水平上落。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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恆指未能擺脫上落市格局
耀才證券研究部團隊稱,隔晚(28日)美股先跌後回升,美國5年期孳息率和30年期孳息率出現倒掛,引發經濟衰退的憂慮,道指最多跌逾300點,銀行股普遍受壓,不過收市三大指數均轉升,納指升逾1%,表現較爲突出的有Tesla(TSLA.US)以及比特幣概念股。環球股市仍然處於拉鋸格局,主要觀望俄烏今日(29日)在土耳其的面談外界認爲成功出現停火協議的機會不大,近期恆指平均每日上落波幅均達500點以上,大市未有明確方向的情況下投資者需做好風險管理,目前22,000點的阻力較大,先關注個別業績股。藍籌當中,今日建行(00939.HK)、中銀香港(02388.HK)、中行(03988.HK)、比亞迪(01211.HK),碧服(06098.HK)將公佈財報。
技術上,以日線圖而言,恆指未能擺脫上落市格局,不過10天線慢慢向20天線交接,有利支持位上移至21,145點,需要小心如果市況沽壓加劇的話即市支持將會下移至20,120點,亦即回補3月16及17日的裂口位置。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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