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《大行報告》摩通下調國壽(02628.HK)目標價至13元 評級「中性」
阿思達克 03-28 12:00
摩根大通發表報告,下調中國人壽(02628.HK)目標價由14元至13元,評級「中性」。 摩通認爲,隨着代理人數量持續減少,壽險業務復甦可能比預期需要更長的時間;不太有利的宏觀環境,如債券收益率低和股票市場波動大,將意味着投資收益率下降,以及負債準備金補足的壓力增加;在「償二代」下償付能力資本仍然充足。 該行目前預測國壽2022和2023財年的新業務價值分別爲430億元人民幣(下同)和460億元,原先爲480億元和520億元。爲反映最近趨勢,目前預測2022財年的淨利潤爲450億元,原先爲460億元,比市場預期低23%。盈測調整後,將2022和2023財年的股息預測分別由0.57元和0.8元略微下調至0.55元和0.75元。這意味着2022財年預測市盈率爲6倍和5.5%的股息收益率。
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