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《業績前瞻》券商料中銀(02388.HK)去年純利按年跌逾9% 聚焦內房風險敞口及派息指引
中銀香港(02388.HK)將於下周二(29日)公布去年業績,由於新冠疫情反覆,低利率環境持續令淨息差收窄,經營收入受壓,本網綜合5間券商料中銀香港2021年純利預測介乎230.78億至248.62億元,較2020年純利264.87億元,按年下跌6.1%至12.9%;中位數為239.23億元,按年下滑9.7%。 綜合4間券商料中銀香港2021年每股股息預測介乎1.09元至1.25元,較2020年每股股息1.242元,按年跌12.2%至上升0.6%;中位數1.221元按年跌1.7%。由於同業恆生銀行(00011.HK)去年下半年涉與內地商業房地產信貸損失撥備較高,令投資者關注中銀香港相關撥備表現。而本港第五波新冠疫情嚴重,或令中銀的貸款增長及銀行財富管理收入受到影響。此外,隨著市場預期美聯儲局今年將會多次加息,投資者將關注中銀管理層對未來淨息差及派息比率的指引。 【低利率環境下 去年盈利受壓】 匯豐環球研究料中銀香港2021年純利230.78億元按年下滑12.9%,估計中銀去年淨利息317.86億元按年下滑8.5%,料2021年淨息差由上年1.27厘收窄至1.08厘,該行估計中銀去年撥備前經營利潤(PPOP)326.03億元按年跌14.5%,料中銀2021年每股股息1.09元按年下跌12.2%,去年派息比率50%(對比2020年派息比率49.6%)。 按美銀證券1月報告,料中銀2021年純利238.27億元按年跌10%,估計中銀去年第四季淨息差持續受壓,去年第四季貸款增長放慢,中銀對東盟地區市場已採審慎態度,料成本與收入比率維持穩定。 ------------------------------------------------ 本網綜合5間券商料中銀香港2021年純利預測介乎230.78億至248.62億元,較2020年純利264.87億元,按年下跌6.1%至12.9%;中位數為239.23億元,按年下滑9.7%。 券商│2021年純利預測(港元)│按年變幅 瑞銀│248.62億元│-6.1% 花旗│241.98億元│-8.6 高盛│239.23億元│-9.7% 美銀證券│238.27億元│-10% 匯豐研究│230.78億元│-12.9% 按中銀香港2020年純利264.87億元推算 ------------------------------------------------ 綜合4間券商料中銀香港2021年每股股息預測介乎1.09元至1.25元,較2020年每股股息1.242元,按年跌12.2%至上升0.6%;中位數1.221元按年跌1.7%。 券商│2021年每股股息預測(港元)│按年變幅 美銀證券│1.25元│+0.6% 國泰君安國際│1.242元│持平 花旗│1.2元│-3.4% 匯豐研究│1.09元│-12.2% 按中銀香港2020年每股股息1.242元計
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