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建銀國際:內地氫能規劃助力全國實現雙碳目標 濰柴動力(02338.HK)、中集安瑞科(03899.HK)屬行業先行者
國家發改委和國家能源局早前聯合印發《氫能產業發展中長期規劃(2021-2035年)》,屬內地首個頂層氫能產業發展規劃。目標到2025年形成5萬輛的燃料電池汽車保有量,每年10萬至20萬噸的可再生能源製氫量,和部署建設一批加氫站,實現二氧化碳減排100萬至200萬噸。到2030年,目標形成一個較為完備的氫能產業技術創新體系,以及清潔能源製氫及供應體系。到2035年,可再生能源製氫在終端能源消費佔比中明顯提升,並形成多元化的氫能應用生態。 建銀國際發表研報,料氫能為幫助全國實現雙碳目標的關鍵工具,尤其是在去碳化進程的後半段時期。該行引述中國氫能聯盟數據,估計在2030年碳達峰情景下,內地總氫能的需求將達到每年3,715萬噸,在終端能源消費中佔比約5%至6%。在2060的碳中和情景下,氫能需求將繼續攀升到1.3億萬噸,佔終端能源消費佔比的20%。 報告稱,水電解槽、燃料電池汽車、儲運設備供應商或在中短期內,較供應鏈中的其他持份者更早感受到政策紅利。氫氣供應鏈很長,涉及氫氣生產、儲存和運輸以及終端應用。在供應鏈中,該行相信,水電解槽、氫燃料電池、燃料電池汽車、儲氫瓶組、氫氣運輸車、管道供應商等綠氫設備製造商將比同行更早受益。這些領域的市場領導者或先行者包括億華通(688339.SH)、濰柴動力(02338.HK)、中集安瑞科(03899.HK)、中材科技(002080.SZ)、隆基股份(601012.SH)、陽光電源(300274.SZ)。 由於氫產業仍處於新興發展階段,建銀國際稱,氫能對上市公司的收入的貢獻仍微不足道,料少於5%,但不包括億華通,該公司幾乎所有的收入皆來自燃料電池發動機系統的銷售。政策支持對推動產業未來增長至關重要。另外,其他氫能上游生產商包括寶豐能源(600989.SH)和美錦能源(000723.SZ)等,它們正在從煤炭/煤化工供應商開始轉型為綠氫製造商。
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