《大行報告》高盛下調友邦(01299.HK)目標價至101元 仍然確信買入
高盛將友邦(01299.HK)目標價由105元下調至101元,評級「買入」,續列於確信買入名單。該行認為友邦去年下半年在內地的毛利率下降主要反映了儲蓄產品組合的增加,因為高利潤率的危疾產品的銷售受到可支配收入增長放緩的負面影響,繼續預計今年第一季按年錄得雙位數下降。
香港市場方面,該行認為最新的社交距離措施可能會影響友邦今年上半年的銷售額和利潤率,但2020年其他市場的經驗表明,這種影響可能是暫時的,預計香港銷售額和利潤率將在今年下半年恢復。
高盛表示,注意到2021年第四季澳門對內地遊客的銷售額,升至相當於香港行業年化新保費的7%,而2021年第一季只有3%。高盛相信這種勢頭會持續下去,並預計在2022年第四季度放寬香港與內地之間的旅行限制之前,澳門將在2022年第一季至第三季貢獻約6-7% 的友邦香港銷售額。
高盛認為,友邦宣布的100億美元的回購,將主要讓友邦在未來三年內充分利用自由現金盈餘,若全部回購金額實施,預計2024年自由現金盈餘為150億美元,而 2021年為170億美元,到2024的經營股本回報率將從 2021的10%擴大至13%。
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