一文了解券商對安踏(02020.HK)公佈去年業績後最新觀點及目標價
安踏體育(02020.HK)今早股價偏淡。由於疫情影響及公司門店擴張較保守,瑞信預計安踏的多品牌戰略將支持其長期增長,維持「跑贏大市」評級,目標價輕微從145.59港元下調至145港元。
安踏昨中午公佈去年業績,截至去年12月底止全年收益按年增長38.9%至493億元人民幣,純利按年增長49.6%至77.2億人民幣,撇除分佔合營公司虧損影響,去年純利按年增長35.4%至78.01億人民幣。每股基本盈利2.87元。派末期息每股68港仙。
安踏去年品牌收益按年增長52.5%至240.12億人民幣,FILA收益按年增長25.1%至218.22億人民幣,所有其他品牌收益按年增長51.1%至34.94億人民幣。毛利率61.6%,按年擴大3.4個百分點。平均存貨週轉日數增加5日至127日。
【短期面臨挑戰 績後股價造淡】
高盛表示,安踏去年營運毛利較該行原預期弱,主要是因冬奧市場推廣支出較高,管理層料安踏核心品牌今年零售銷售增長逾20%、Fila品牌今年零售銷售增長15至20%,但近期新冠疫情重燃,料令公司要達成相關目標存較高風險,料公司短期存在衆多不明朗因素,下調對安踏目標價由186港元降至159港元。
瑞信發表報告,指安踏去年度收入增長39%,較市場預期高3%,並較瑞信預期高出4.5%,主要是受到安踏品牌表現好過預期所帶動;期內淨利潤增長50%至77億元人民幣,亦較瑞信預期高1%。該行指安踏品牌有望實現今年增長目標,但Fila全年增長15%至20%的目標仍存在較高的不確定性,指出近期疫情下內地封城,影響到安踏的線下及線上零售。
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下表列出10間券商對其投資評級及目標價:
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
高盛│買入│186元->159元
摩根士丹利│增持│160元->150元
野村│買入│157.2元->149.3元
大和│買入│157元->148元
瑞信│跑贏大市│145.59元->145元
瑞銀│買入│159元->143.2元
建銀國際│跑贏大市│147元->125元
匯豐環球研究│持有│122.7元->116.7元
富瑞│持有│150元->114元
花旗│沽售│71.3元->75元
券商│觀點
高盛│短期存衆多不明朗因素
摩根士丹利│對今年首兩月銷售增長強勁添信心,但疫情影響難以預測
野村│去年盈利超預期毛利率改善,料今年首季利潤承壓
大和│推動可持續質量增長有好表現,去年收入和淨利潤符預期
瑞信│內地一線城市因疫情阻礙FILA銷量增長,安踏品牌銷售理想
瑞銀│去年下半年淨利潤增長勝預期,惟今年銷售或受疫情拖累
建銀國際│去年下半年淨利潤增長符預期
匯豐環球研究│銷售具彈性增長,但FILA銷售而易受疫情影響
富瑞│FILA銷售表現較弱,憧安踏品牌革新
花旗│去年FILA品牌銷量差於預期,料今年銷售前景黯淡
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