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史詩級暴漲之後,港股科技股悉數回落,後市怎麼看?
格隆匯 03-18 10:19

經過兩日的大漲,港股科技股開始回落。

今天盤前競價,大多數科技股都以跌幅開場,開盤後,也普遍染綠,恆生科技指數跌幅也超過4%。

而隔夜美股中概股,同樣結束了為期一天的史詩級狂歡。外圍市場和A股不同,本身就沒有漲跌停限制,可以在很短的時間內反應利好或者利空,當然是以暴漲暴跌的形式,所以留給博超級機會的時間並不多,很多時候就一兩天而已。

其實,如果單看漲幅,這兩天確實誇張,但是對比之前的股價,其實並沒有太誇張,很多公司的股價距離原來的高位,還是“望穿秋水”的味道,何時能夠“回家鄉”,怕還是要等上相當長的一段時間。

騰訊股價走勢

阿里巴巴股價走勢

對於那些堅定的投資者而言,基本只是看了個熱鬧,賺了個寂寞。

不過,重磅的政策的出台,互聯網尤其是平台型公司的邏輯出現了變數,是向好的轉變,未來預期也在邊際轉好,而鑑於股價陰跌了一整年,估值也已經創下歷史性低位,不少互聯網公司甚至大廠的估值,已經跌落到基礎設施的區間,後市樂不樂觀,穩健一點還是要看形勢發展,看各家公司的業務、業績變化,但至少不必像之前那樣悲觀。

從長遠邏輯上講,科技股也得做區分。隨着移動互聯網紅利的結束,很多大廠其實都面臨着增長瓶頸,鑑於國家現在的發展方向,未來這些大廠如果不是從事基礎研究和創新,增長空間就會相對有限,即使監管政策放鬆,那也只是估值修復,而且這種修復是不太可能回到過去,所以,股價的上漲空間也會比較有限;而如果要去做基礎研究和創新,又是一條高投入、長時間,而且高風險,這樣會增加財務支出負擔,從而影響中短期的業績增長。

大廠們會如何選擇,那就只能拭目以待了。

而一些符合國家發展方向、符合全球產業發展方向的個股,長線邏輯會更加強勁,如新能源、電動車,因為有厚厚的雪,長長的坡,只要熬得住時間,都會回來。

今天還有一個宏觀影響因素,那就是俄烏之間所謂的停火,又出現變數,雙方政府發言人都各執一詞,令到整個局勢變得撲朔迷離,油價在連日大跌之後,又重新進入上升模式,股市更是增加更多的不確定性。

至於後市如何發展?

最高層的發話,股市已經有所反應,下一步,就要看具體的實質性進展了。如就中概股會計問題的溝通,如果有樂觀進展,甚至能夠妥善解決分歧,那中概股還會再來一次狂歡,但如果又出幺蛾子,那就是另外一回事了。

還有互聯網監管問題、甚至房地產發展問題,喊話是喊完了,最後還是要看交出來的“作業”。

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