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植耀輝: 聯儲局議息符預期美股揚 恆指有望續反彈
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美國隔晚(16日)延續反彈勢頭,三大指數均有好表現,當中納指升幅更達到3.8%,收報13,436點,亦令年內跌幅收窄至14%;至於道指隔晚亦升1.6%,收報34,063點,年初至今跌6.26%。中概股大幅反彈,加上俄烏局勢有望改善,以及聯儲局議息結果符預期,均爲支持大市造好之原因。 港股昨日出現報復式反彈,恆指急升1,672點或9.08%,國指升幅亦達到12.5%,而科技指數更大升22%,爲面世以來最大單日升幅。雖然出現如此大反彈,但本月至今三大指數跌幅仍大,恆指累跌11.56%,國指下跌14%,科指跌幅更仍達到17%。 隨着大市反彈,恆指成份股中個別升幅可以用驚人來形容。23只藍籌升幅高於一成,當中美團(03690.HK)及京東集團(09618.HK)升幅更超過三成。ATM中騰訊(00700.HK)升幅最少,但亦達到23%。相比之下,公用股及內銀股表現較失色,工行(01398.HK)及建行(00939.HK)下跌,中電(00002.HK)則爲第二差表現藍籌,下跌1.5%。 其餘股份亦有強勁反彈,早前急跌之萬國數據(09698.HK)及嗶哩嗶哩(09626.HK)分別急彈48%及40.8%,但本月計兩者仍分別下跌34%及24%。 由於隔晚美股持造好之餘中概股升幅進一步擴大,執筆之時新加坡黑期更進一步升至21,300點水平,預期今日港股有望延續反彈。不過兩日之間大市抽升幅度相當驚人,故即使追貨亦不宜太進取。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份) *********** 恆指下一個反彈目標21,616點 耀才研究部稱,隔晚(16日)美股反覆上落,收市全線向上,納指升超過3%。聯儲局議息後以8比1的投票率宣佈加息0.25釐,餘下一位委員主張加息0.5釐,符合市場的預期。局方最快在5月開始縮表,同時將2022年經濟增長預測由4%下調至2.8%,基於通脹率連續兩個月創下四十年新高,局方認爲未來每一次會議均會加息。基於俄烏局勢軟化,同時聯儲局未有發表令人震驚的言論,資金從債市流出重返股市,10年期債息曾升10個基點至2.248釐。中概股跟隨亞洲股市抽升,金山雲(KC.US)抽升七成,拼多多(PDD.US)漲56%,有利港股繼續反彈。 港股技術走勢方面,指數14RSI出現嚴重超賣後,終於在昨天出現一支大陽燭,形成了接近早晨之星的見底訊號,指數扭轉弱勢後,下一個反彈目標將會爲黃金反彈比率0.5的21,616點。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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