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絕地大反擊,市場在交易什麼
格隆匯 03-16 23:00

作者 | 明野

數據支持 | 勾股大數據(www.gogudata.com)

今天港股和互聯網絕地大反擊,互聯網股都快搞成幣圈的波動了。

催化劑

1,昨晚新冠治療方案的調整,大致方向就是不擠壓醫療資源,輕症的集中隔離即可,所以市場就對放開有了一些預期(對恢復經濟有重要幫助),但美股反彈主要是跌幅較多的小盤股,騰訊adr,阿里巴巴都還是綠的。早上港股開盤也是先拉了一波還是有回調趨勢。

2,重要轉折點是中午的文件,對很多東西等於有了説法,一次性包括了最近市場的所有疑慮和擔心 ,包括:房地產市場,中概股美國除牌擔憂,中國企業海外上市問題,平台經濟監管等,給市場釋放強烈支持。因為兩會之後,市場一直期待有一些指引性的內容可以出來。之前的信息真空期,加上各種宏觀的因素(昨天提到的那些),也是之前市場大跌的客觀環境。

但是後面,其實還需要看到一些配套的東西出來,比如有部分人最擔心的疫情要如何應對,畢竟3月份這波反覆,對經濟增長信心造成了比較大的影響。也比如對一些行業的規範文件,包括互聯網也有很多懸而未決的東西多少要給個説法。也包括對中概監管的迴應,是否能達成一些協議等。

總體來説,是對經濟增長給予了很大信心,而且這種信心,其實對市場整體都是有幫助的。比如A股,有了這種信心之後,不管是穩增長板塊還是成長板塊,甚至是消費板塊,都是受益的。

今晚還需要關注一下,是美聯儲的議息會議,25bp有了充分預期,應該不會變,主要關注點在點陣圖和對經濟增長預期,還有最核心對通脹的看法

後面,地緣衝突貌似也要吿一段落,油價也回到了暴漲之前,A股、中資股等,核心的交易點,就真要落到增長上去了。

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