植耀輝: 美股反彈觀望議息 港股跌勢有望喘定
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(15日)出現反彈,三大指數均有不俗升幅。投資者繼續觀望烏俄局勢最新發展,以及靜待聯儲局議息結果,不過油價跌破100美元一桶,情況利好市場氣氛。最終道指上升599點或1.8%,收報33,544點,標普500指數上升89點或2.14%,收報4,262點,納指上升367點或2.92%,收報12,948點。
港股昨日則連續第三個交易日下跌,跌勢更進一步加劇。恆指最多曾大跌近1,300點,最低見18,235點,再創2016年後新低,雖然跌勢其後有所收窄,但全日仍下跌1,116點,收報18,415點,全日總成交2,861.68億元。31隻成份股創至少一年新低,成份股中亦只得2隻股份錄得升幅,相反依然有12隻藍籌跌幅多於一成,跌幅最大為內房股龍湖集團(00960.HK)及碧桂園服務(06098.HK),分別達到15.4%及12.8%。另外中國平安(02318.HK)亦跌超過12.6%。值得一提的是,中概股跌勢持續,當中阿里健康(00241.HK)及阿里巴巴(09988.HK)再跌12.2%及11.9%。
事實上,經昨日一跌,港股表現可說慘不忍睹,恆指3月至今累跌18.9%,科技指數更加大跌32%,部分股份跌幅更已超過50%。由於隔晚美股造好,中概股亦普遍反彈,預計港股跌勢暫有望喘定並反彈,惟相信市場氣氛未見改善,恐怕大市仍會反覆偏弱;加上市場仍存在眾多不明朗因素,初步反彈目標暫看19,000點。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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觀察恆指技術型態能否出現見底信號
耀才證券研究部團隊稱,隔晚(15日)美股三大指數收升2%至3%,俄烏恢復第四輪談判,烏克蘭承認不會加入北約的事實,被認為態度軟化有助俄烏停火。另外,美國稱正積極尋求與中國達成合作協議,以便開展對相關會計師事務所的檢查和調查,同時結束跨境審計監管困局,金龍中國指數收市彈5%。市場觀望今晚聯儲局議息結果,市場預計月內先加息0.25厘,另一方面俄羅斯制裁美國及加拿大最高級官員,市況能否正式見底還是未知之數,投資者不宜過度進取。
港股技術走勢方面,恆指至今仍處於反覆向下尋底之格局,於日線圖上正呈現更多死亡交叉,指數先以整數關口作支持。另一方面指數14天RSI開始跌穿20的超賣階段,投資者可以等待見底信號例如早晨之星或破腳穿頭的出現。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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