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暴力反彈!恆指狂拉8%,恆生科技近20%,悲觀情緒到底了?
格隆匯 03-16 14:39

這兩天的港股投資者,絕對是見證歷史。

連續兩天的暴跌,消磨了幾乎所有人的意志,但是股市就是這麼神奇,今天午後,港股直接來了一個暴力拉昇,恆生指數一度拉昇超過8%,恆生科技指數更加強勢,漲幅幅一度接近20%。

恆生指數暴力拉昇

恆生科技指數暴力拉昇

一種跌成狗的科技股更是迎來久違的陽光。

正如跌下去的恐慌踩踏,一旦消息面有利好,反轉起來也會比較大,尤其是在政策面頻吹暖風的現在。

有什麼消息面這麼厲害?

主要還是來自最高層的指示,其中和港股相關性比較大的,有兩點:

1、關於中概股,正在致力於形成具體合作方案,中國政府繼續支持各類企業到境外上市。2、關於平台經濟治理,穩妥推進並儘快完成大型平台公司整改工作,促進平台經濟平穩健康發展,提高國際競爭力。

這兩點所對應的問題,正是最近港股和中概股暴跌的主要原因,如果再加上流動性方面的一點:積極出台對市場有利的政策,慎重出台收縮性政策。

某程度上,這也可以看成是國家正式出手救市。既有對症下藥,又有流動性的支持,三點正好是讓港股久旱逢甘霖,於是有了午後的暴力拉昇場面。相信不少投資者都會直呼過癮,畢竟才幾天時間,就深刻地體驗什麼叫做冰火兩重天。

不過,對於未來的走勢,還是得多幾分理性和冷靜。

首先,近日的下跌,跌幅很深,也跌得很急,基本可以説無關乎行業面、基本面,主要還是利空因素實在太多,又密集轟炸,最終導致情緒面過分悲觀,市場極度缺乏信心所致。這種情緒帶來的行情,通常是大起大落,所以今日午後的大反彈,也屬於正常現象,既然能夠暴跌,當然也能夠暴漲。

其次,從港股的整體估值和跌幅上看,港股現在算不上貴,甚至可以説已經較為便宜,機會也比較多,所以長線機會正不斷增加。股市喜歡説預期,説信心,今天的政策面,確實使得市場信心有所回升,但信心能不能一直持續,就成了後市能不能繼續反彈的重要因素,因為真正影響信心的,除了政策面,還有宏觀經濟、地緣政治、流動性等多方面的因素。

政策面可以吹暖風,但是解鈴還須繫鈴人,影響市場信心的其他重要因素究竟會如何發展,同樣很重要,這些因素現在看來還存在不確定性。所以,反彈是好事,但不要簡單粗暴地認為,一個大反彈,就是好日子回來了,還得多留點心。在過往的市場熊市期間,也見證過類似的行情,有的是觸底反彈,也有的只是曇花一現。

對於投資者而言,暴力反彈,到底是逃生機會,還是加倉機會,就在乎個人選擇了。

不過,鑑於保守穩健的原則,股市劇烈波動期間,還是得管好自己的手。

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