景順料將有更多ADR被列入美國HFCAA臨時名單
美國證券交易委員會(SEC)更新《外國公司問責法案》(HFCAA)臨時名單,景順亞太區(日本除外)環球市場策略師趙耀庭預期陸續會有更多ADR被納入名單,最早會有公司於2024年初被要求退市,但相信上市公司有足夠時間處理,市場亦有能力過渡變化。
他又指出,考慮到事件已蘊釀一段時間,上市公司可制定一個獲中國監管機構批準,並符合美方要求的解決方法,該行早前對中美雙方未來達成共識感到樂觀,現時則未見雙方談判有任何進展,因此預期在短期內市場仍會較波動性,繼續對ADR持謹慎態度。
中國最新公佈的經濟數據顯示,歐美消費者需求帶動今年首兩個月中國出口增長,令工業生產持續增長,他相信工業生產仍將是今年中國經濟增長主要動力,但預期疫情影響下未來數月內地零售銷售增長或放緩。
他指出,數據超出預期,相信主要由於市場情緒悲觀,對今年數據預期亦相對較低,但整體而言今年首兩個月中國經濟基本面較樂觀。疫情、烏克蘭戰爭及工業活動的價格投入可能爲市場帶來上行壓力,甚至可能推動生產者及消費者價格指數上升,景順預計人民銀行可能會在第二或第三季度進一步下調中期借貸便利(MLF)政策利率,並於下半年或再下調一次。
俄羅斯烏克蘭戰爭加劇地緣政治風險,他建議投資者切勿恐慌,強調中國繼續實施寬鬆貨幣政策,宏觀經濟正在改善,期待看到更多的流動性流入市場,又預期內房信貸週期已見底,今年剩下時間將有所改善,同時關注地方政府採取的額外財政刺激措施令市場更穩健。
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