瑞銀汪濤料人民幣短期持續強勢 惟年內或小幅貶值
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤博士表示,近期人民幣迅速升值,2月底人民幣兌美元即期匯率突破6.31水平,年初至2月基於貿易加權的CFETS貨幣籃子人民幣匯率指數升值2%以上,並達到近年來的高點。
她指,多重因素共同推升人民幣匯率,最重要的因素是商品貿易順差帶來可觀的累計資金流入,中國經濟基本面與其他經濟體的相對表現也給人民幣匯率帶來了支撐,而地緣政治風險升溫以來,人民幣似乎成為了避險貨幣,在即期匯率快速升值的情況下,人民幣匯率中間價未大幅偏離市場預期,央行似乎也未採取其他措施阻止升值勢頭。
汪濤預計,短期內人民幣匯率強勢持續,但今年內可能小幅貶值,人民幣匯率將貶值2%至3%,至介乎6.4至6.5兌一美元水平。
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