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《大行報告》花旗:若油價升穿130美元 中石油(00857.HK)及中石化(00386.HK)盈利可能下跌
花旗發表研究報告,指出根據政策,若油價超過130美元,國家發改委將進一步調整汽油和柴油價格,煉油廠將不得不承擔所有提升的原油成本,導致中石油(00857.HK)煉油總利潤(GRM)受壓,盈利水平下降,令中石油不再成為油價上升的良好投資對象,較推薦中海油服(02883.HK)及杰瑞股份(002353.SZ)等貝塔系數較高的油田服務及設備商,預計兩家公司都將在資本開支上升週期中發揮得較好。 花旗預期,假設油價在130美元以上每上漲1美元,中石油及中石化(00386.HK)的每桶GRM將下降0.6及0.5美元,即約減少53億及63億元人民幣,完全抵銷了勘探與生產業務的帶動作用。 報告指出,當實際油價超過65美元時,當局將開始對國內原油生產徵收暴利稅,由20%水平逐步提升40%,而目前油價已經超過85美元的情況下,40%的暴利稅大大削減上游盈利能力減弱,因此估計油價在130美元以上每上漲1美元,為上游商帶來的額外利潤僅為0.6美元,以花旗預測今年布倫特原油價格達89美元為基準,估計中石油及中石化暴利稅總額達到300億及60億元人民幣。 花旗預期,中海油服及杰瑞接下來的強勁業績將為股價提供基本面支撐,對中海油服及中石化給予「買入」評級,兩者目標價分別為10元及5.7元,對中石油則予以「沽售」評級,目標價由2.7元升至3.4元。
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