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招商證券國際:短期多重逆風 資金流出使中概股及港股出現超賣
招商證券國際近日發表報告表示,美國證券交易委員會(SEC)上周根據《外國公司問責法》(HFCAA)將五家中概股公司納入「臨時退市清單」。此次納入「臨時退市清單」的五家公司均在過去數日發布年報。接下來幾個月,隨著各家公司陸續披露年報,該行預計幾乎所有中概股將被加入到該「臨時退市清 單」。 該行指,中概股退市風險由來已久,去年12月2日SEC宣布已修訂完善了《外國公司問責法》相關的信息提交與披露的實施細則,表明針對中概股的監管政策正式進入實質性執行階段。此次SEC發布清單並非代表事態陡然升級,而只是落實《外國公司問責法》在實際操作層面的一個節點。截至3月10日,美國交易所上市的中概股共280家,市值合計1.29萬億美元,其中272家為民營企業,市值合計8,935.1億美元。中概股回歸港股主要採取「第二上市」(目前16家)或「雙重主要上市」(目前4家)兩種形式,合計市值分別為6,050.6億美元和735.3億美元。其餘尚未回歸的公司市值合計為2,149.3億美元。 招商證券國際指,根據其篩選,2022年餘下時間預計符合條件進行第二上市的公司有36家,合計市值為1,425.2億美元;2023年預計符合條件的公司有12家,合計市值為449.7億美元;兩年合計佔尚未回歸民營中概股市值的87.2%。但由於港交所(00388.HK)審核周期以及港股市場流動性等因素,實際回歸的公司數量可能面臨較大的不確定性。 值得注意的是,蔚來(09866.HK)(NIO.US)在今年3月10日採取「介紹上市」的形式,從美股回流並取得港股第二上市地位。「介紹上市」不會發行新股,也不會籌集新增資金,因而無需進行公開招股程序,所需掛牌流程較短。在漸行漸近的退市風險下,蔚來對其他中概股可能起到一定的示範效應。若公司並無急迫集資需求,該行預計採取此方式可顯著加快回歸的步伐。 該行預計到2024年初,中美若在跨國審計監管合作層面無法產生突破,中概股退市將會逐步落地。即便中概股以雙重主要上市或第二上市途徑回流港股,部分原有投資者可能面臨只能投資美國證券交易所掛牌股票的限制,無法將持倉轉往香港,而不得不清空或削減持倉,造成投資者基礎的永久流失,進而導致中概股估值承壓。 短期內,雖然中概股退市風險對公司基本面並無影響,但招商證券國際預計多重逆風影響下(俄烏戰爭、香港本土疫情、美聯儲貨幣政策等),投資者情緒較為悲觀和政治因素導致的資金流出使得中概股和港股出現超賣,短期內仍將延續底部震蕩行情。
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