美股週報(3.13) | 俄烏局勢趨於明朗,市場對滯漲擔憂有望緩解;本週三美聯儲議息會,週五“四巫日”,美股波動或仍較大
上週美股三大股指悉數收跌。標普周跌幅2.9%,納指跌3.5%,道指跌2%。美國十年國債收益率大漲15.8%,收報1.997%,連續兩日盤中突破2%,與兩年期國債收益率差值24個基點。恐慌指數VIX大幅震盪,收跌3.8%。WTI和布倫特原油價格整體回落約5%,布倫特原油收報112美元。現貨黃金價格收漲0.9%,收報1988美元/盎司。
俄烏局勢有明朗的趨勢,週五俄總統普京表示與烏克蘭談判出現了一些積極的轉變,週日烏克蘭談判代表稱,兩國正趨於達成簽署全面和綜合協議。與此同時,西方對俄的制裁仍在加碼,週五美國總統拜登表示,美國旨在結束與俄羅斯的正常貿易關係,G7將拒絕給予俄羅斯最惠國待遇等。
伊朗核協議談判受阻。週五歐盟委員會副主席兼“外長”博雷利表示,由於外部因素,認為有需要暫停伊核談判。受此係列消息影響,週五WTI和布倫特原油均收漲近3%,市場對通脹擔憂加劇。有分析師估計此次伊朗新增原油供應,對油價影響約在5%左右。
宏觀經濟數據方面,週四美國公佈2月CPI數據,同比增長7.9%,續創40年新高,但數據符合市場預期,對盤面整體影響有限。當日,歐洲央行轉鷹,計劃提前退出刺激措施,擬於今年第三季度結束資產購買,此舉超出市場預期。歐央行行長拉加德在會後發表講話,下調22年GDP增速為3.7%,此前預期為4.2%,同時將22年通脹預期由3.2%大幅上調至5.1%,將23年通脹預期由1.8%上調至2.1%。不過她預計通脹將在24年穩定在2%左右,符合長期目標水平。
行業板塊方面,標普11大板塊除了能源之外悉數收跌。能源ETF上週收漲2%,高科技板塊跌幅居前,周跌幅達3.8%。通訊服務板塊跌3.2%,工業板塊跌2.4%,醫療服務板塊跌2.7%,消費板塊跌2.8%。
中概股慘遭暴擊。週四美國證監會SEC在網上披露了5家因為《外國公司問責法案》,而進入被識別清單的公司,分別是百勝中國、百濟神州、再鼎醫藥、和黃醫藥和盛美半導體,中概股受此影響大面積跳水。分析稱本次事件並不突然,中美之間審計底稿問題由來已久。《外國公司問責法案》是地域性風險,只要公司在中國,找中國審計師做審計工作,提供底稿則需要中國財政部和相關部門的批准。而美方認為在現有框架下,中國審計事務所出具的報吿都不符合要求。這一事件仍在持續發酵,短期轉勢的可能性低。
本週重點財經數據與事件:
週二美國公佈2月PPI數據。
週三美聯儲議息會,將公佈利率決議,鮑威爾將召開貨幣政策新聞發佈會。
週五美股四巫日,市場波動可能加劇。


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