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黑色星期一!
格隆匯 03-07 22:58

作者 | 明野

數據支持 | 勾股大數據(www.gogudata.com)

今天黑色星期一!

從技術上來説,主要是市場的破位導致一些量化資金和其他的恐慌資金出逃。

但是核心的觸發因素,還是大宗的價格,布倫特原油價格一度達到了140,因為美討論對俄實施石油禁運。這樣的價格,可以説,如果持續的話,對全球經濟都是災難性的打擊,別説美國通脹7個點了,10個點都是輕輕鬆鬆,最後都會導致需求的大幅萎縮。歷史上,關鍵的商品價格持續高企之後,後續多數都伴有經濟滑坡的風險,現在大家擔心的也是這個。

所以我們看到,在經濟需求下降的預期影響,對港股是更大的,今天港股的破位下跌比A股更可怕,比如今天的港股互聯網大跌(南向還是流入的),絕大多數不是自身基本面的因素(唯一就是兩會中提到要降低頭部平台企業費用),因為背後的資金是國際性的。所以這個時點討論互聯網的基本面沒啥意思,還不如討論下宏觀。

但是短期來説,這個宏觀大宗的影響因素,感覺也和算命一樣,現在新聞也是,基本上都不能確定,今晚還要再次談判。所以實話説,現在大宗的價格可能才是最好判斷的指標,畢竟裏面的“主力”所能獲取的信息,遠遠比我們多。比如,石油突然單邊大跌,那麼基本上可以理解那邊在發生什麼。

而海外和國內有個明顯政策差,國內多了一條需求政策——穩增長,這塊理論上對黑色系(鋼鐵煤炭)支撐力度會較大,主要是看國內為主的黑色板塊價格如何。

另外一個要簡單説的,就是在這種行情下,我們如何控制心態,就是我們對我們的投資體系要持之以恆。比如你的投資體系是一直高倉位操作的,那麼高倉位的代價就是大波動,但是波動不代表永久損失,這個體系的核心是對公司持續價值的理解。如果是做趨勢的,那麼現在就坐着看戲,不要覺得便宜就下場,便宜是給做價值的人看的。大概的核心理論是盈虧同源!

明天的一些題材:

①金屬鎳-供應擔憂引“妖鎳”出沒,鎳價盤中創歷史新高(青島中程、盛屯礦業、華友鈷業、中國中冶等)

②海運-央視:幹散貨船租金一天一個價 BDI指數一個多月飆漲超60%(寧波海運、中創物流、招商輪船、中遠海能等)

③有機硅-有機硅產業鏈價格上漲 產業鏈公司望受益(新安股份、東嶽硅材、合盛硅業、三孚股份等)

還有茅台發了一個神奇的公吿,這個公吿是之前都沒發的,而且20的數字還有點超預期。茅台的股票是很優質的抵押物,所以價格大幅下挫是有危險的。

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