瑞銀王宗豪:目前難以評估大型平台降費影響
國家總理李克強在《工作報告》提及,要引導大型平台企業降低收費,以減輕中小企的經濟負擔,瑞銀中國股票策略研究主管王宗豪指出,兩會首度提出要求互聯網平台降費,扶助中小商戶,預料此舉將會對互聯網平台利潤帶來一定的壓力,對整體板塊發展有負面影響。
他指出,由於過去一段時間,互聯網板塊一直受制於不同政策監管,包括反壟斷、信息安全等,並較大反映監管負面信息,惟兩會首度要求引導平台降費,故市場仍靜觀實施新政策的力度,及是否一次性或是持久,他認為目前難以評估,料市場對板塊解讀均偏向負面。
在內地房地產板塊方面,他預測未來房企利潤率將會受壓制,現時房地產政策的邊際變動情況,如2012年、2015年的投資低谷相似,而現時房地產政策收緊則和2011年、2014年類似,惟次年當政策放寬後,板塊表現可觀。惟和2012年中國處於經濟高速發展,以及在2015年棚改利好整個行業不同,由於內地目前採用「房住不炒」原則,他預料整個行業的長期投資邏輯已有改變,相信未來房企利潤將會受壓制。
兩會提出2022年GDP增速目標為5.5%,王宗豪認為這高於市場預期,料對股市有正向影響,同時,在碳排放方面,他認為即使內地沒有提及任何硬指標,仍然重視能源投資,未來繼續推進風電和太陽能投資等。(ca/u)
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