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瑞銀汪濤料內地「清零」政策今年不太可能調整 財政及貨幣政策將進一步寬鬆
阿思達克 03-07 15:22
瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管董事總經理兼首席中國經濟學家汪濤在記者會上表示,內地將今年經濟增長目標定於5.5%,稍高於該行預期的5.4%,及過去兩年平均的5.1%,屬比較激進的目標,相信在疫情持續、房地產行業下行及俄烏衝突可能影響出口等壓力下,政府需要付出努力才可達成增長目標。 她指,Omicron變種病毒傳播能力強,由於香港疫情嚴重,深圳及上海亦出現相關新個案,預期內地今年不太可能調整「清零」政策,嚴格控制措施會對消費造成影響,估計目前地方因應冬奧及新春實行的防疫措施最少到第二季才會稍為放鬆,屆時消費料會跟隨反彈,今年全年消費增長或略高於經濟增長,約為5.7%。 汪濤認為,為了穩定經濟增長,內地今年財政及貨幣政策將進一步寬鬆,財政擴張料最少較去年多兩個百分點,將積極進行退稅減稅及加大民生和公共投資等,估計人行會再下調存款準備金率並維持利率在低位,同時利用其它貨幣工具確保流動性充裕,信貸增速在今年年中或將反彈至11%左右,但降息機會仍然不大。 人民幣匯率方面,她稱內地經濟有韌性,令人民幣今年表現較為穩定,因應國際局勢情況,美元近期可能偏強,人民幣對一籃子貨幣或會升值,隨著美國開始加息使中美利差及貿易順差收窄,至年底人民幣或會略為貶值,美元兌人民幣料約處6.4至6.5水平。 對於內地房地產行業持續受壓,她指過去數月內地政府的房地產政策已有所放鬆,例如不少城市放寬首付比例,相信未來政策會傾向持續放寬,房產稅試點亦不會在今年推出,以減少對經濟及金融的衝擊。雖然部分負債高及流動性差的房企仍有可能違約,但因目前情況已處底部及受基數效應影響,預期行業未來會逐步好轉,由今年首季的銷售及新開工面積按年下跌20%至25%,改善至下半年按年錄得上升。全年計,她料房地產銷售及新開工面積或下跌約10%至12%,房地產投資亦將出現小幅下降。
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