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一文綜合券商於申洲(02313.HK)發去年盈警後的最新觀點及目標價
申洲國際(02313.HK)發盈警後今早股價下挫,盤中曾低見97.95元一度挫20.3%,最新報107.4元跌12.7%。摩根士丹利指,按申洲發去年盈警顯示,即其去年下半年純利按年下跌51%至66%,遠遜於該行原預期只下滑18%預測,指受累柬埔寨及越南生產受阻和人民幣升值嚴重降低利潤率,相信市場反應負面,並關注其今年毛利及產能前景。 申洲預期去年度將錄得稅後淨利潤介乎約31億元至35億人民幣,按年下降約31%至39%。公司預期,利潤減少主要由於去年上半年柬埔寨的生產基地部份時間暫停運營;去年下半年越南西寧省生產基地及越南胡志明市生產基地部份時間暫停營運;由於集團銷售主要以美元結算,人民幣兌美元匯率升值造成負面影響;及2021年下半年各項生產成本都有較明顯的升幅,銷售定價的傳遞有滯後,尤其是受疫情影響而延期的訂單之售價無法調整,對去年下半年業績有負面影響。 【業績遜預期 憂今年前景】 花旗下調對申洲2021年至2023年盈利預測各32%、16%及17%,反映其發出去年盈警預期,重申對其「買入」評級,下調對其目標價由179港元降至160港元。 高盛發表研究報告,指出申洲國際發盈警預期去年稅後純利按年跌31%至39%,較該行預期各低18%至27%。反映公司去年下半年純利預測爲8.74億至12.74億元人民幣,較該行預測的20.23億人民幣低出37%至57%。該行將申洲目標價由175港元下調至160港元,維持「買入」評級。 -------------------------------------- 下表列出7間券商對其投資評級及目標價: 券商│投資評級│目標價(港元) 瑞銀│買入│180元 星展│持有│177元 摩根士丹利│增持│170元 花旗│買入│179->160元 高盛│買入│175->160元 大和│跑贏大市│160元 富瑞│買入│190->157元 券商│觀點 瑞銀│下半年越南工廠停產及人民幣升值對利潤率帶來負面影響 星展│越南生產恢復成關鍵問題,地緣局勢或拖累運營及減慢勞動力 摩根士丹利│生產受阻和人民幣升值嚴重降低利潤率 花旗│越南生產受疫情影響,盈警後下調2021至2023年盈利預測 高盛│料去年盈利遜預期,對訂單前景及銷售額保持不變 大和│盈警令人意外,產能擴張順利料今年訂單強勁,預計淨利潤將正常化 富瑞│預計越南和柬埔寨近期產能偏低
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