《大行報告》瑞銀料香港今年實質GDP增長2.2% 下調MSCI香港指數年底目標至12,100
瑞銀髮表報告指,MSCI香港指數在2月份下跌3%,而MSCI亞洲(日本除外)指數下跌2%,原因是地緣政治和香港的新冠疫情影響了市場氣氛。該行預計,香港今年實質GDP增長2.2%,將今年底時MSCI香港指數目標由12,400點下調至12,100點,以反映盈利增長放緩。
瑞銀表示,雖然MSCI香港指數成分股對東歐的直接敞口有限,但估計約15%的指數收入和資產位於歐洲,主要是西歐,並面臨英鎊和歐元兌美元貶值的潛在風險。在該指數中,長和(00001.HK)同系公司的風險敞口最大,針對新冠疫情對社交距離實施更嚴格限制,可能會在短期內拖累本地消費。該行將香港科技探索(01137.HK)添加到首選股,並將領展(00823.HK)從的首選股名單中剔除。
瑞銀估計,與內地和澳門的通關可能會推遲到今年下半年,目前市場普遍預期MSCI香港的每股盈利將在2022-2023年間增長14%至16%,高於該行對MSCI香港的9%至15%的按年增長預測,認爲市場可能進一步下調盈利預測,這可能會在短期內添壓港股。
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