瑞銀料俄羅斯央行或不願立刻實施資本管制
瑞銀投資銀行經濟學家Anna Zadornova指出,俄羅斯央行擁有6,300億美元的外匯儲備,資產凍結將削減俄羅斯國內匯市操作立即可用的儲備量。
她估算,俄羅斯外匯和黃金儲備總額中,有48.6%是在美國、德國、法國、英國、日本、加拿大和澳洲發行或是交易對手來自這些經濟體;10.7%為「其他」(俄羅斯對交易對手的債權),13.8%在中國,5%對手為超國家金融機構(SDR等),21.7%是黃金(國內持有)。假設人民幣佔比不變,那麼有3,880億美元儲備可能已被凍結,相當於外匯儲備中非黃金部分的82%。
Zadornova預計,俄羅斯央行/政府可能採取的四項措施包括提升市場中外匯的供應量;上調盧布利率;提升制裁範圍之外的儲備;在短期內降低外匯需求或設置需求配額,幫助恢復匯市平衡。
她續指,鑑於其政策粘性較強,且考慮到相關政策可能令國際投資、貿易和國內金融系統雪上加霜,認為俄羅斯央行或不願立刻實施資本管制,不過這最終或取決於國內儲戶和企業的行為。
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