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《大行報告》瑞銀降龍光集團(03380.HK)評級至「沽售」 目標價下調至1.8元
瑞銀發表報告指,龍光集團(03380.HK)表外債務可能達580億至790億元人民幣,即去年6月底報告淨負債的1.23倍至1.67倍,將其評級由「中性」降至「沽售」,目標價由5.8元下調至1.8元。 瑞銀表示,基於2021年合同銷售額,龍光集團是頭20名房企,其流動性問題將對民營房企的流動性產生負面影響,將龍光集團2021-23年每股盈利預測下調 22%-48%,以反映銷售、入帳和毛利率疲軟,並將自去年下半年以來的股息預測削減至零。 瑞銀表示,在3月和4月,龍光將有3項境內債券到期或可回售,合計48億元人民幣,佔其市值37%,如果評級機構下調評級,公司的10 億美元離岸私人債務可能會提前贖回。該行認為,公司可能會出售其城市更新項目、高利潤項目,如惠州龍光城項目、其香港及新加坡物業資產。不過,由於城市更新項目的高度不確定性,因其香港項目是和合景泰富(01813.HK)合作,而新加坡項目完成之前,發展商不得出售項目股權,因此出售星港業務存在困難。 瑞銀認為,城市更新業務是龍光表外債務龐大的原因,因為它是一項資產周轉緩慢的業務。該行估計,自2016年以來,該公司可能在城市更新項目上至少投資了530億元人民幣,如果龍光違約,可能會引發對其他擁有城市更新業務的房企再融資的擔憂。
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