中信證券:4680電池集新設計新技術於一身,引領產業變革
本文來自格隆匯專欄:中信證券研究,作者:袁健聰、王喆、敖翀、劉易、劉海博、李鷂等
特斯拉4680電池已實現量產,有望引領產業變革。目前主流電池廠紛紛跟進,預計2023年迎來爆發。推薦4680佈局領先的電池企業、受益4680電池爆發需求提升的高鎳、硅碳、補鋰劑、碳納米管、LiFSI、結構件等主輔材供應商,建議關注激光設備和衝壓設備供應商。
4680電池採用新設計新構型,良率突破是量產關鍵。
相比2170電池單極耳結構,4680電池採取了全極耳+集流盤的設計,同時主流方案採取殼體槽底處打孔放正極柱、殼體槽口用蓋板激光焊封口的新構型。在加工工序方面,4680電池比2170電池增加了極耳模切、揉平、激光焊集流盤、開口化成、激光焊蓋板的工序。目前特斯拉1月已自產100萬顆4680電池,平均良率達92%,最高良率達97%,良率已達可量產水平。
特斯拉打出4680電池“組合拳”,國內外頭部電池供應商跟進。
特斯拉圍繞4680電池打出“大電芯+全極耳+高鎳高硅+CTC”的“組合拳”,同時實現了 1)續航長:4680能量密度提升>20%;2)充電快:全極耳優化了電池的熱電性能,可承受4C以上高倍率電流;3)成本低:大電池+高能量密度攤薄單Wh成本。另外,4680由於其熱安全性能更優、內應力分佈均勻的優勢,較方形更適配高鎳高硅體系,我們預計中低端車將多應用磷系方形+CTP方案,高端車將多應用高鎳高硅4680+CTC方案。此外,海外如LG、松下、三星,國內如寧德時代、億緯鋰能等頭部電池供應商亦跟進佈局4680電池。4680電池有望在特斯拉和頭部電池廠的推動下迎來爆發拐點。
4680電池技術為高能量高倍率主輔材應用帶來強驅動,為結構件和設備升級帶來新機遇。
此前由於補貼退坡帶來降本訴求、安全性問題凸顯,主輔材向高能量高倍率方向升級速度放緩,4680電池有望成為新的升級驅動。高鎳正極、硅碳負極、補鋰劑、碳納米管、LiFSI、PVDF等主輔材滲透率/用量有望提升。結構件方面,由於4680採用新構型設計,製造門檻提升,使結構件轉向定製化、殼體+蓋板成套採購,格局優化同時單品價值量提升。設備方面,激光模切、激光焊等工序用量增加、高精度要求提升相關設備價值量,頭部電池廠規劃新產能有釋放訂單。殼體衝壓設備有望實現國產替代。
投資建議:
特斯拉4680電池已實現量產,有望引領產業變革。目前主流電池廠紛紛跟進,預計2023年迎來爆發。推薦4680佈局領先的電池企業:寧德時代、億緯鋰能;推薦受益4680電池爆發需求提升主輔材供應商:中偉股份(高鎳)、當升科技(高鎳),璞泰來(硅碳)、杉杉股份(硅碳)、德方納米(補鋰劑)、科達利(殼體)、天奈科技(碳納米管)、天賜材料(LiFSI)、新宙邦(LiFSI),建議關注貝特瑞(高鎳+碳納米管)、芳源股份(高鎳)、斯萊克(殼體)、海目星(激光模切設備)、聯贏激光(激光焊設備)、寧波精達(衝壓設備)。
風險因素:
4680良率爬升不及預期,原材料降本不及預期,新能源汽車銷量不達預期。
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