俄羅斯不受出口制裁,能源價格回落
能源市場經歷了動盪的一天,石油期貨上漲了9%,收盤時下跌了近7%。儘管拜登以及歐洲聲稱會對俄羅斯加以制裁,但西方正式宣佈的制裁,並未將俄羅斯驅趕出SWIFT金融交易系統,基本上沒有對俄羅斯的能源出口構成任何威脅。
SWIFT是比利時的一個進行金融交易的報文系統,連接了11,000多家金融機構。凡是加入SWIFT的銀行都會有一個獨一無二的SWIFT碼,SWIFT就是目前國際上傳遞金融信息的一個主要渠道。儘管俄羅斯有數家銀行受到了美國、英國、加拿大和其他國家的制裁,但俄羅斯大宗商品生產商仍因爲利用了該系統,確保了俄羅斯商品的順利出口。
德國和意大利一直非常明確地表示不會對俄羅斯的天然氣和石油流動製造任何阻礙,並且德國總理奧拉夫·肖爾茨(Olaf Scholz)也曾警告英國首相鮑裏斯·約翰遜(Boris Johnson):德國不會支持將俄羅斯踢出SWIFT系統。據悉,在今年1月,德國過早關閉了該國一半的核電站之後,加速了對俄羅斯天然氣的依賴。
由於制裁不大可能影響到能源流動,而且俄羅斯也並未通過減少供應而正式威脅到西方,故而石油的供需平衡基本保持不變。然而,在歐洲人爭相建立發電原料庫存之際,煤炭和天然氣價格仍處於高位。這勢必會加強莫斯科的貿易平衡,進而爲他們入侵烏克蘭提供資金。
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