醫藥板塊今日吹響反彈號角?
格隆匯2月25日丨此前持續調整的港A醫藥股今日出現久違的集體大反彈行情。A股通策醫療、佛慈制藥、金域醫學、太安堂漲停,博騰股份漲近10%,翰宇藥業、昭衍新藥、九州藥業漲超8%,凱萊英、康龍化成、愛爾眼科、智飛生物、泰格醫藥等漲幅均超5%。港股藥明生物漲超5%。消息面上,美國白官2月24日聲明,拜登哈里斯政府計劃採取10項具體行動以提高關鍵供應鏈的復原力,促進小型企業的作用,以此確保本國供應鏈安全。其中部分關鍵項目有:提出一項進出口銀行倡議,增強本土半導體、生科科技、生物醫藥、可再生能源和儲能產品生產的融資支持;通過財政部和小企業局向小型生產商提供更多資金;啟動一項4.5億美元的港口等基建改善計劃;將在未來幾周內提出一項新的買美國貨”規則,對於關鍵產品提供新的參考價格和本土產品含量門檻:使用《國防生產法》建造和擴展一系列醫藥資源產業基地,以減少美國在關鍵醫藥產品和原料藥對進口的高度依賴等。西部證券醫藥研究團隊點評稱:此次聲明為2021年2月24日拜登政府簽署對四項關鍵品類半導體芯片、電動汽車大容量電池、稀土金屬、藥品等關鍵供應鏈確保安全政策的延續,當時拜登政府要求對相關供應鏈進行為期100天的審查及更深入的一年期審查。關於生物醫藥領域的詳細闡述體現在美國HHS(衞生與公眾服務部)發佈的報吿裏,其中重點闡述了美國公共安全供應鏈情況及相應產業基礎。正文內容分為四個部分,即強化美國醫藥製造產業基礎、個人防護及醫療設備、檢測試劑、藥品和疫苗。通篇報吿集中在新冠疫情下美國所需的口罩/檢測/疫苗/藥品的供應鏈現有情況及過去一年所做的工作,並未涉及到任何涉及與他國供應鏈“對立”的觀點及措施。關於大家普遍關心的API及KSM(關鍵中間體)的供應鏈問題,該報吿僅在第四部分藥品和疫苗涉及,關注點集中在美國市場短缺的藥品供應上。在提升措施中,重點提到通過提高國內自建產能解決供應問題,例如HHS已投資了超過1.05億美元解決了API短缺藥物的生產,包括右美託咪定、羅庫溴按、芬太尼、咪達唑侖、丙泊酚、阿曲庫銨。並在積極確定當前短缺藥品,未來通過投資緩解更多藥品短缺。上述行為主要是為了應付美國部分藥品短缺,對全球產業鏈格局影響有限。整體來看,此次聲明及報吿主要是迴應拜登政府一年前政策和百日審查的表態,具體政策多為此前政策的延續,市場對於美國藥品供應鏈安全性態度的擔心可以基本消除。中國原料藥企業和CXO公司在全球產業鏈中具有明顯的比較優勢,未來有望承接更多的全球CXO/原料藥產能需求轉移,行業維持高景氣度。目前CXO板塊估值已進入價值配置區間,堅定推薦CXO板塊。
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