國君鋼鐵：下游需求明顯回暖，持續看好板塊機會
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國泰君安證券研究，作者：李鵬飛
需求明顯回暖。上週五大品種鋼材社庫升133.48萬噸、廠庫降23.07萬噸，總庫存升110.41萬噸；五大品種鋼材表觀消費量775.7萬噸，升208.17萬噸。上週螺紋、熱卷模擬生產利潤分別為921、631元/噸，較2021年同期分別升947、697元/噸。元宵節後下遊復工復產有序推進，鋼材消費表現出明顯回暖跡象，我們預計後期鋼材需求復甦節奏將逐步加快。全年來看，我們認為在“穩增長”背景下，隨着基建投資持續發力、地產政策逐漸好轉，建築用鋼需求有望明顯好轉；同時隨着汽車缺芯問題逐步緩解，汽車用鋼需求也將逐漸恢復。總體來看，我們認為全年鋼材需求韌性較強，板塊有望迎修復行情，低估值疊加高分紅，行業競爭格局將持續優化。
上週五大品種鋼材周產量886.08萬噸，較前一週升15.66萬噸，維持在較低水平。2月11日全國電爐開工率28.21%，較前一週升2.57個百分點。據國家統計局數據，12月全國粗鋼產量8619萬噸，環比升24.4%，同比降6.8%；全國粗鋼日均產量278萬噸，環比增20.3%，同比降5.5%。雖然鋼鐵行業碳達峯時間推遲，但我們認為僅影響市場短期情緒，長期行業嚴禁新增產能的要求並未改變，行業長週期景氣的邏輯不變。
我們正站在鋼鐵行業新繁榮的起點。鋼鐵行業的產能擴張週期結束，我們認為當下是行業新繁榮的起點。行業將呈現以下特徵：1）城鎮化率提高和製造業發展背景下，需求繼續上升，行業將迎來供需長週期錯配，鋼價大幅波動結束，未來行業持續景氣。2）兼併重組加速，行業龍頭優勢明顯。行業集中度快速上升，龍頭企業議價權提升。行業龍頭通過持續的優化管理、提升效率最終降低成本。同時綠色發展將拉開龍頭與其他企業的成本差距，龍頭將產生超額收益。行業產能週期結束後，擴產能的模式不再，未來行業資產負債率下降、分紅上升，行業逐漸向輕資產轉變。3）電爐快速發展。修訂版《鋼鐵行業產能置換辦法》鼓勵電爐發展，電爐鋼佔比或將快速提升，由於電爐開啟靈活的特點，供給與需求匹配度增強，價格波動性降低。4）優特鋼持續發展，中信特鋼、撫順特鋼等個股，估值從週期品切換到成長邏輯。5）行業中長期盈利中樞的上修，ROE上升。
維持“增持”評級，板塊迎最佳配置時點。推薦低成本、強管理普鋼龍頭寶鋼股份、華菱鋼鐵、首鋼股份、太鋼不鏽、新鋼股份、方大特鋼。受益製造業升級與進口替代，推薦特鋼龍頭甬金股份、中信特鋼、撫順特鋼、久立特材、廣大特材，推薦轉型鋰電標的永興材料。電爐鋼佔比上升，推薦石墨電極龍頭方大炭素。受益液流電池儲能發展，推薦龍頭攀鋼釩鈦。地下管廊及管道建設迎來機遇期，推薦管道龍頭新興鑄管、金洲管道、友發集團。新材料領域推薦羰基鐵粉龍頭悦安新材。
風險提示：限產政策超預期放鬆，行業需求超預期回落。
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