《大行報告》匯豐研究下調玖紙(02689.HK)目標價至10元 評級「買入」
匯豐環球研究發表研報指,玖龍紙業(02689.HK)2022財年上半財年盈利按年跌35%,符合公司盈利預警。
誶行指出,由於煤炭、廢紙和紙漿的成本較高,玖紙期內產品利潤率低於預期,調整後淨利潤爲每噸303元人民幣,對比2021上半財年爲每噸456元,但水平仍遠高於2012至2016財年行業產能過剩的時期。公司管理層表示,部分包裝紙新產能將提前落成,預計將於今年第二季開始運營。匯豐研究認爲,由於現時需求低迷,新產能首年對銷量貢獻不會錄得有意義增長。
匯豐研究又指,由於生產成本較高,短期內可能會出現漲價公告,但產品利潤率預期短期內繼續受壓,認爲在行業高庫存水平、需求疲軟加上產能增加等問題未解決前,產品利潤率將未有機會回升。
該行下調玖紙2022至2024財年盈利預測,將目標價由13元下調至10元,認爲產品成本高企無法完全轉嫁,但考慮到公司估值處於谷底,相信進一步下行空間可能有限,維持「買入」評級。
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